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Research Article Open Access

Credit Risk Prediction to Individuals

Abstract

Loans to individuals become the most vulnerable segment of commercial banks’ investment in a volatile financial environment. Searching safe methods for modelling refund loans reliability is one of the methods for credit losses risk reduction in commercial banks. In this article, such problems as a credit risk increase and an effective means of its evaluating are considered. In addition, it is proposed to solve these problems by developing a mathematical model describing dependence between loan defaults and the factors characterizing the financial reliability of the borrower through the credit transactions example with individuals of a particular bank. The purpose of this model is to identify the relationship between the independent variables. The development of regression models to estimate losses from repayment risk from individuals is described in this article. The model reflects the relationship between significant independent factors characterizing the degree of the borrower’s financial reliability according to the component analysis method based on the model of David Cox.

LYUDMILA VYACHESLAVOVNA EFIMENKO, TATYANA ALEKSANDROVNA SHINDINA, ELENA VASILEVNA TABAKOVA, ALEXANDRA VITALEVNA GAVRILOVA

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