Analysis and Forecasting of Sales Volumes of the Regional Insurance Company: The Russian Experience
The article describes the main types of insurance services provided by one of the largest insurance companies of Primorsky Krai in the border areas, determines the methods of analysis of insurance activity and analyzes the size of insurance premiums received during the period of 2012-2014 in order to develop forecasting and risk minimization models. The main value of the study lies with using a well-known methodology in the activities of the regional insurance organization in order to increase its effectiveness (adapting existing methods of forecasting time series with respect to forecasting sales volumes of the insurance company). Forecasting sales volumes using a Holt-Winters multiplicative model of exponential smoothing gives good results and a certain idea about the events of the future. The models obtained in the course of the study and data calculated on them can be used in the future to generate control and management of sales volumes in the regional insurance company, as well as to calculate the coefficients of the financial condition of the company, which will allow to track the decline in yield. Thus, the proposed algorithm for the analysis of sales volumes based on the methods of comparison, selection of "bottlenecks", method of dynamic range and economic analysis allows to control the dynamics of sales and the development of measures that ensure its successful growth, which has practical relevance to the insurance company of any scale.
ALENA PETROVNA ZAKHAROVA, OKSANA YURYEVNA VINICHUK, DIANA ALEKSANDROVNA MAKSIMOVA